The-Defect
0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
- Realised P&L
- $7.4k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 1,584
- Open portfolio
- $7.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,584
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$613.31at 0.978Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
- +$518.79at 0.956Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
- +$425.27at 0.958Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$425.26at 0.587Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
- +$391.06at 0.978Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:27 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.68 | $61.19 |
| 11-01 15:17 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | SELL | 0.976 | $227.82 |
| 11-01 11:09 | Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $63.86 |
| 11-01 08:32 | Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.384 | $1.92 |
| 11-01 07:59 | Will Fred VanVleet play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.25 |
| 11-01 07:08 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $132.80 |
| 11-01 06:45 | US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $8.29 |
| 11-01 06:43 | Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.40 |
| 11-01 06:33 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.76 | $42.18 |
| 11-01 04:06 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $27.34 |
| 11-01 03:41 | Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | SELL | 0.45 | $6.53 |
| 11-01 02:06 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $60.12 |
| 11-01 02:05 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $299.88 |
| 11-01 02:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $39.96 |
| 11-01 02:01 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $199.98 |