PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

The-Defect

0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3

Realised P&L
$6.0k
Volume
$896.8k
Markets traded
1,221
Open portfolio
$6.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,221
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? · Yes0.8600.888$1.1k+$34.64
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? · No0.8650.915$994.45+$54.04
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? · No0.7350.790$859.59+$59.65
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Yes0.6900.570$495.03$104.11
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.8200.905$402.57+$37.81
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · No0.6840.825$323.56+$55.16
NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? · No0.8800.960$260.16+$21.68
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No0.8290.745$220.69$25.03
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August? · No0.8900.885$196.47$1.11
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.6990.705$160.06+$1.30
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · No0.7670.768$131.34+$0.21
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? · No0.7590.815$129.56+$8.80
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.9100.915$114.38+$0.63
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? · No0.8540.957$77.09+$8.33
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? · No0.8910.925$74.00+$2.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 02:14Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.37$61.60
08-02 15:01US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?SELL0.64$8.96
08-02 12:29Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?SELL0.999$237.85
08-02 05:48NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season?BUY0.88$238.48
08-02 03:36Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $575B by August 31?BUY0.5$2.50
08-02 03:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.47$17.56
08-02 02:45US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?SELL0.606$15.15
08-02 02:41US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?SELL0.63$52.76
08-02 02:34Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by July 31, 2026?BUY0.974$4.87
08-02 02:16US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.58$7.25
08-02 02:09Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.75$22.50
08-02 02:04Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.64$33.92
08-02 01:18Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.77$20.89
08-01 20:44Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?SELL0.998$99.86
08-01 13:35Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?SELL0.7003759091$15.41