The-Defect
0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
- Realised P&L
- $6.0k
- Volume
- $896.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,221
- Open portfolio
- $6.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,221
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$613.31at 0.978Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
- +$529.17at 0.956Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
- +$426.76at 0.958Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$391.06at 0.978Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?
- +$383.57at 0.869Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 02:14 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.37 | $61.60 |
| 08-02 15:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.64 | $8.96 |
| 08-02 12:29 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $237.85 |
| 08-02 05:48 | NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? | BUY | 0.88 | $238.48 |
| 08-02 03:36 | Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $575B by August 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 08-02 03:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.47 | $17.56 |
| 08-02 02:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.606 | $15.15 |
| 08-02 02:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.63 | $52.76 |
| 08-02 02:34 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $4.87 |
| 08-02 02:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $7.25 |
| 08-02 02:09 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $22.50 |
| 08-02 02:04 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.64 | $33.92 |
| 08-02 01:18 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.77 | $20.89 |
| 08-01 20:44 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $99.86 |
| 08-01 13:35 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7003759091 | $15.41 |