DearMaria
0xabaacf1ddc4c914706cc38b17e96a835a09da174
- Realised P&L
- $78.03
- Volume
- $151.2k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $19.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.057 | $19.72 | −$144.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$473.34at 0.566Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$250.71at 0.117Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
- +$186.99at 0.397Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
- +$172.10at 0.196Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
- +$50.43at 0.125Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 22:00 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.0717142857 | $19.08 |
| 06-07 22:00 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $23.50 |
| 06-07 21:53 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1005720595 | $43.95 |
| 06-07 21:52 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $160.16 |
| 06-07 21:51 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.898 | $3.68 |
| 06-07 21:51 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.188 | $0.94 |
| 06-07 21:51 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.73 | $0.69 |
| 06-07 21:51 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.48 |
| 06-07 21:51 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $7.27 |
| 05-17 09:38 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.52 |
| 05-17 09:38 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $5.40 |
| 05-16 10:27 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.2407227848 | $19.02 |
| 05-16 10:27 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6454349367 | $50.99 |
| 05-16 06:39 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.50 |
| 05-16 06:39 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.686 | $4.12 |