valera365
0xab04cee562fd03ff21f1ecda2e4949dc5db87ecd
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $143.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? · Yes | 0.986 | 0.985 | $51.19 | −$0.08 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? · No | 0.967 | 0.957 | $45.40 | −$0.50 |
| Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.983 | 0.957 | $44.00 | −$1.22 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.970 | 0.981 | $2.65 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$472.00at 0.410Blue Jays vs. Pirates
- +$428.82at 0.580Dodgers vs. Reds
- +$354.75at 0.670White Sox vs. Cubs
- +$1.59at 0.974Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9?
- +$1.40at 0.955Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 11:05 | Rays vs. Athletics | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |
| 07-29 06:42 | Dodgers vs. Reds | BUY | 0.58 | $592.18 |
| 07-23 08:36 | Royals vs. Cubs | BUY | 0.58 | $704.12 |
| 05-27 11:40 | Cardinals vs. Orioles | BUY | 0.49 | $4.83 |
| 05-16 11:42 | White Sox vs. Cubs | BUY | 0.67 | $720.25 |