MadelynHu
0xaad084a7e8face0d936ce742127a34d1bf6efa07
- Realised P&L
- $-1.05
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $130.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.985 | 0.997 | $79.72 | +$0.92 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.996 | $39.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.987 | 0.992 | $11.05 | +$0.05 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers · Clippers | 0.677 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee · Philip Henning | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.99at 0.890Knicks vs. Pacers
- +$0.85at 0.922Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$0.70at 0.992Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.56at 0.640Bills vs. Steelers
- +$0.32at 0.997Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 12:46 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $40.00 |
| 08-14 14:09 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 08-14 14:06 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.00 |
| 07-28 14:52 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.00 |
| 07-28 14:52 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999241 | $13.00 |
| 06-16 14:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $107.00 |
| 06-16 14:48 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9189999698 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 14:48 | Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 07:56 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $74.00 |
| 05-15 07:55 | Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 05-15 07:55 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 05-15 07:55 | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $20.00 |
| 04-15 12:58 | Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $63.04 |
| 04-15 12:58 | Warriors vs. Clippers | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.96 |
| 04-15 12:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? | BUY | 0.997 | $24.99 |