0xAaad7cb102F41E015bB8A06cF6E52A0c396EAa81-1762291244991
0xaaad7cb102f41e015bb8a06cf6e52a0c396eaa81
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $420.3k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.146 | $2.4k | +$1.4k |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.011 | $30.51 | −$69.49 |
| Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.00 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will André Ventura win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.136 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$204.90 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$788.31at 0.321Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$490.15at 0.377Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$415.65at 0.538Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?
- +$243.93at 0.008Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$145.93at 0.720Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 14:36 | Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.0360588213 | $100.00 |
| 07-06 02:19 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.2249999967 | $50.00 |
| 07-06 00:57 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2399999967 | $50.00 |
| 07-06 00:55 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.149999994 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 00:54 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 07-06 00:52 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.4299999987 | $150.00 |
| 07-06 00:51 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $100.00 |
| 06-02 17:35 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0626429665 | $296.34 |
| 06-02 17:35 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0587000702 | $703.66 |
| 06-02 17:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.025 | $548.63 |
| 06-02 14:39 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.943 | $1.0k |
| 05-23 01:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0455681403 | $1000.00 |
| 05-12 02:38 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.914 | $1000.00 |
| 04-10 13:24 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.5k |
| 04-10 13:22 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $500.00 |