2025cathyz
0xaa6420df7d5fcf804bf139996c83f04418c7c13f
- Realised P&L
- $-0.45
- Volume
- $192.06
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $2.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.870 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.920 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.091 | $0.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.48at 0.407Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?
- +$0.65at 0.610Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$0.57at 0.642Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23?
- +$0.41at 0.715Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?
- +$0.40at 0.590Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 04:38 | LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 12:44 | Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 12:16 | Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 12:05 | Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 07:06 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 11:21 | Poznan (Doubles): Drzewiecki/Matuszewski vs Cervantes/Molchanov | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 13:26 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 06-14 04:33 | Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 05:50 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 05:46 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9549999952 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 11:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 03:55 | Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? | BUY | 0.987999996 | $1.00 |
| 03-12 02:15 | Iran leadership change by March 31? | SELL | 0.2109998532 | $1.05 |
| 03-10 01:50 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 14:40 | Iran leadership change by March 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |