tugoserya
0xaa63b948bf45a6927ded61c850affc2d263b1546
- Realised P&L
- $7.15
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $175.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.982 | $55.76 | +$0.99 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.930 | $53.11 | −$0.57 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.973 | 0.970 | $52.48 | −$0.19 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? · No | 0.961 | 0.282 | $14.10 | −$33.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.50at 0.950Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?
- +$1.45at 0.971Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
- +$1.15at 0.959Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?
- +$0.55at 0.983Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.40at 0.962Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-08 08:09 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |