0xaa522fe8386051a014157e40bdbae406cb5a8524
0xaa522fe8386051a014157e40bdbae406cb5a8524
- Realised P&L
- $111.19
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $7.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.013 | $2.17 | +$1.17 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.534 | 1.000 | $1.87 | +$0.87 |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.014 | $1.63 | −$1.37 |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.979 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will BP be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.035 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$109.00at 0.019Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
- +$15.32at 0.065Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
- +$14.57at 0.126Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
- +$9.06at 0.103Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$6.09at 0.147Exact Score: Any Other Score?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 15:24 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2919999501 | $1.17 |
| 10-26 15:24 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0659999985 | $2.00 |
| 10-18 21:29 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 18:12 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-05? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 15:56 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04? | BUY | 0.6699998437 | $3.00 |
| 09-04 15:53 | Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 02:30 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 02:27 | 1st Half Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 12:23 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 12:22 | Will Yunnan Yukun win on 2026-09-02? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 12:20 | Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0145866035 | $1.47 |
| 09-02 12:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.47 |
| 09-02 12:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.50 |
| 09-02 12:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008999991 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 15:53 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |