xingsha
0xaa3b28f41f1017aadd2258e4cb9bd2a11aa0aea3
- Realised P&L
- $-250.08
- Volume
- $123.9k
- Markets traded
- 203
- Open portfolio
- $40.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded203
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.543 | $27.18 | +$19.82 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.530 | 0.820 | $8.20 | +$2.90 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.027 | $2.70 | −$1.30 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.125 | $2.50 | −$4.70 |
| Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe · Rinky Hijikata | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic · Marie Bouzkova | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.60at 0.130Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?
- +$21.67at 0.735If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
- +$12.76at 0.440Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview?
- +$10.23at 0.461Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$8.18at 0.550Will Trump say "Trans" during Elon interview?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 17:02 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 06-11 07:54 | HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic | BUY | 0.51 | $2.55 |
| 01-17 09:49 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 01-17 09:46 | Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 01-11 01:58 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 01-03 12:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.147 | $14.70 |
| 12-27 09:05 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.18 | $14.14 |
| 12-11 13:20 | Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 12-11 13:20 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 12-11 13:19 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 12-06 13:42 | Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? | SELL | 0.05755 | $5.75 |
| 12-06 13:42 | Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $18.60 |
| 12-06 13:40 | Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | SELL | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 11-29 14:13 | Sharks vs. Golden Knights | BUY | 0.27 | $2.70 |
| 11-10 12:15 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.16 | $16.00 |