0xaa299438ca381a9be252399f427a690bb2ec8603
0xaa299438ca381a9be252399f427a690bb2ec8603
- Realised P&L
- $-7.20
- Volume
- $82.32
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $4.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.955 | $2.26 | +$0.77 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.525 | $1.96 | +$0.47 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.015 | $0.06 | −$1.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.66at 0.249Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$2.77at 0.350US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$2.11at 0.420Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $352.50 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$1.72at 0.470S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 19?
- +$0.50at 0.748Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 22:29 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.49 |
| 09-19 07:29 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999106 | $1.49 |
| 09-03 22:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.3499999178 | $1.49 |
| 09-01 01:26 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6699995818 | $1.49 |
| 09-01 01:26 | Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.49 |
| 08-30 17:22 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999895 | $1.49 |
| 08-29 08:47 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.48 |
| 08-24 20:48 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $304 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.6199996338 | $1.49 |
| 08-24 09:52 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998915 | $1.49 |
| 08-24 01:37 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.459999895 | $1.49 |
| 08-23 07:46 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? | BUY | 0.5099999418 | $1.49 |
| 08-22 12:40 | GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999464 | $1.49 |
| 08-21 07:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.7899997561 | $1.49 |
| 08-20 23:42 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $352.50 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998762 | $1.49 |
| 08-20 14:26 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.6869998787 | $1.49 |