Blue-moon
0xa9dd5a6eced2c44e4e51f63f8a24a156958e6d2e
- Realised P&L
- $6.5k
- Volume
- $686.4k
- Markets traded
- 296
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded296
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.835 | $1.2k | +$48.97 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · Yes | 0.980 | 1.000 | $1.1k | +$22.22 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · No | 0.977 | 1.000 | $798.00 | +$18.75 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? · No | 0.987 | 0.988 | $594.39 | +$0.40 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yes | 0.984 | 0.988 | $318.12 | +$1.38 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.940 | $199.05 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$625.91at 0.969Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$619.95at 0.896Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$507.27at 0.809US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
- +$457.17at 0.999Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$446.98at 0.965Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 22:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.9855909915 | $210.90 |
| 05-28 20:20 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.998 | $152.03 |
| 05-28 20:18 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.998 | $174.37 |
| 05-25 20:09 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL | 0.988 | $171.00 |
| 05-25 13:06 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $5.67 |
| 05-04 20:35 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 05-04 20:34 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $617.32 |
| 05-02 22:47 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $73.47 |
| 05-02 22:46 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $93.06 |
| 05-02 22:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.82 | $326.36 |
| 05-02 22:42 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $382.08 |
| 05-02 22:40 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $55.67 |
| 05-02 22:39 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $362.18 |
| 05-02 22:39 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $185.07 |
| 05-01 15:36 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $183.08 |