0xa9be749199ca04b2c8b25790cdbf4c197f437df9
0xa9be749199ca04b2c8b25790cdbf4c197f437df9
- Realised P&L
- $-11.50
- Volume
- $98.71
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $3.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.225 | $1.07 | −$0.93 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.705 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.520 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.134 | $0.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.24at 0.592Will Trump say "Military" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$0.85at 0.701Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$0.63at 0.750Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
- +$0.61at 0.769Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:01 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 10:39 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:38 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.220999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 09:53 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 01:53 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 17:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:38 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:46 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 08-13 14:03 | Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 06:02 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 21:22 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 13:16 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 05:15 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |