PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

shepesh

0xa98249c319c035b72092163c557969ed3493ceff

Realised P&L
$802.35
Volume
$58.0k
Markets traded
165
Open portfolio
$87.12

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded165
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.5700.430$37.72−$12.28
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.2500.215$21.50−$3.50
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes0.3200.145$11.33−$13.67
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes0.2500.275$11.00+$1.00
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1900.170$4.47−$0.53
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? · Yes0.1300.024$0.92−$4.08
Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0800.007$0.09−$0.91
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0800.006$0.08−$0.92
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Comoros vs. Namibia end in a draw? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$0.38
Hemedti out of power by December 31? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00−$1.00
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 115m? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00−$1.02
Will Slavia Prague advance to the round of 16? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00−$1.00
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France0.2450.000$0.00−$10.04
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00−$1.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 19:33Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.9425216522$108.39
10-27 18:01Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.22$8.46
10-26 14:51Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.26$10.00
10-20 02:56Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?BUY0.5489021901$50.00
10-20 02:37Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?SELL0.3311802892$123.46
09-22 17:49Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?BUY0.13$5.00
09-22 17:41Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?BUY0.32$12.80
09-16 21:55Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?BUY0.59$10.00
09-16 21:53Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?BUY0.45$25.00
09-16 21:51Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.53$50.00
09-15 10:30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.12$3.00
08-29 16:56Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5499999997$197.25
07-07 16:17Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceBUY0.29$29.00
05-30 15:54Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY0.33$10.00
03-01 10:53Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?SELL0.998$139.72