gh789
0xa96ae84591a9d0cf734294b70404fd4c1449dd9f
- Realised P&L
- $-353.85
- Volume
- $7.6k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $54.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.251 | 0.045 | $17.63 | −$80.67 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.052 | $10.50 | −$0.90 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.140 | $9.33 | −$10.67 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.047 | $6.11 | −$25.09 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.592 | 0.085 | $5.88 | −$35.12 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $3.26 | −$6.23 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.018 | $1.98 | −$13.42 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yes | 0.664 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.368 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$229.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$315.36at 0.346Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$136.50at 0.610US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$75.24at 0.210Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
- +$61.44at 0.610Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$25.68at 0.280Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 03:02 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.185 | $12.58 |
| 07-01 03:02 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.332 | $12.10 |
| 07-01 03:02 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.1 | $9.69 |
| 07-01 03:01 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SELL | 0.2368172727 | $26.05 |
| 07-01 02:58 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.0705074 | $7.05 |
| 07-01 02:58 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $12.18 |
| 07-01 02:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.994 | $159.04 |
| 06-24 10:35 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1919999796 | $7.00 |
| 06-24 10:35 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1469999894 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 10:35 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1389999862 | $10.00 |
| 06-23 00:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $20.80 |
| 06-23 00:26 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.057 | $11.40 |
| 06-23 00:23 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 06-21 05:13 | Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0676680813 | $10.00 |
| 06-21 05:04 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.2780416599 | $30.00 |