ningmenghua
0xa96660165d481c258491e42cc658b6e469653336
- Realised P&L
- $-4.20
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $42.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $13.00 | +$0.03 |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.958 | 0.973 | $12.64 | +$0.19 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.990 | 1.000 | $11.99 | +$0.12 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No | 0.984 | 0.975 | $2.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? · No | 0.940 | 0.815 | $1.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.74at 0.890Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.58at 0.963 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$0.37at 0.994Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?
- +$0.35at 0.935Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$0.24at 0.834Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 07:15 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.984 | $3.00 |
| 07-30 07:13 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9299997768 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 07:12 | Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.00 |
| 06-23 06:23 | Will Solana reach $160 in June? | BUY | 0.999 | $65.00 |
| 06-23 06:18 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.9639999866 | $2.30 |
| 06-23 06:16 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.8299999585 | $1.20 |
| 05-31 06:36 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $1.19 |
| 05-31 06:36 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.945 | $4.00 |
| 05-31 06:35 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $15.00 |
| 05-01 04:28 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? | BUY | 0.9 | $3.00 |
| 05-01 04:26 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 05-01 04:20 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 02-26 21:28 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.8999996143 | $1.40 |
| 02-26 21:27 | US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9889999448 | $10.00 |
| 12-26 04:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $82.00 |