20sur20
0xa8fe4df8eb44179105b05b712b9fa7bcd81f4474
- Realised P&L
- $-390.79
- Volume
- $1.45M
- Markets traded
- 104
- Open portfolio
- $6.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded104
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.500 | 0.839 | $3.8k | +$1.5k |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.162 | $727.72 | −$1.5k |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.378 | 0.345 | $655.50 | −$63.50 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.245 | $465.50 | −$80.49 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.512 | $341.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.590 | 0.655 | $0.96 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$532.87at 0.604Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$121.40at 0.011Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?
- +$56.88at 0.409Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$33.79at 0.113Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
- +$32.14at 0.003Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:30 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 09-02 18:43 | Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? | SELL | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 08-27 05:45 | Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? | SELL | 0.59 | $6.15 |
| 08-15 09:43 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.59 | $3.30 |
| 08-11 12:41 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.59 | $48.97 |
| 08-11 12:40 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.58 | $62.06 |
| 08-10 05:17 | Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.96 |
| 08-06 17:24 | Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election? | SELL | 0.47 | $15.21 |
| 08-06 17:23 | Will Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election? | SELL | 0.5 | $19.04 |
| 07-27 20:14 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.249 | $99.60 |
| 07-27 08:15 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.202 | $22.22 |
| 07-23 13:51 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.43 | $56.36 |
| 07-23 08:28 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.267 | $4.00 |
| 07-22 14:02 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by December 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $28.05 |
| 07-22 14:01 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $26.00 |