0xa8cC51061793DADa1176223613422E4039e4ac92-1761830505757
0xa8cc51061793dada1176223613422e4039e4ac92
- Realised P&L
- $458.82
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $43.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? · Yes | 0.421 | 0.065 | $43.06 | −$235.89 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$127.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$708.88at 0.220Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$83.56at 0.703US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$1.95at 0.249Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
- +$0.00at 0.500Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-05 13:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | BUY | 0.1159637428 | $92.93 |
| 04-05 13:27 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | SELL | 0.427292 | $21.36 |
| 04-05 12:02 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | BUY | 0.4864321901 | $200.00 |
| 04-05 12:01 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $283.56 |
| 04-04 07:30 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.8299999952 | $100.00 |
| 04-02 14:44 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6099999985 | $100.00 |
| 03-23 13:37 | Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 20? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 03-23 03:49 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | BUY | 0.3318711467 | $100.00 |
| 01-26 10:25 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.2541111665 | $101.95 |
| 01-11 09:22 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.2492522433 | $100.00 |
| 01-07 02:39 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2199999993 | $199.94 |