0xA8CA1cf8c4122B56A9c7bbbacC5522dD1c7d7d8f-1762995007812
0xa8ca1cf8c4122b56a9c7bbbacc5522dd1c7d7d8f
- Realised P&L
- $-505.97
- Volume
- $78.6k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $228.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? · No | 0.830 | 0.695 | $139.00 | −$27.00 |
| Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? · No | 0.850 | 0.830 | $78.11 | −$1.88 |
| Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.758 | 0.190 | $9.50 | −$28.40 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.015 | $2.33 | −$97.42 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 August 24-30? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23? · No | 0.971 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$235.60 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.00at 0.090Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?
- +$53.46at 0.955Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 7-13?
- +$50.35at 0.959Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?
- +$37.35at 0.750Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
- +$34.35at 0.770Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 16:34 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.6081979078 | $107.56 |
| 10-27 03:42 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | SELL | 0.999 | $149.74 |
| 10-27 03:42 | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | SELL | 0.999 | $149.85 |
| 10-20 01:04 | Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.027 | $5.40 |
| 10-17 01:06 | Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $4.00 |
| 10-01 23:24 | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | SELL | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 09-29 01:16 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 09-06 01:03 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 August 31-September 6? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.85 |
| 08-31 01:57 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 August 24-30? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 08-20 00:05 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.956 | $1.2k |
| 06-24 01:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? | SELL | 0.999 | $169.83 |
| 05-31 01:48 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.997 | $136.59 |
| 05-31 01:43 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.986 | $98.60 |
| 05-19 01:48 | Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.758 | $37.90 |
| 05-03 02:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? | SELL | 0.998 | $159.68 |