317xi
0xa8bf49faa5d0374d6ef2af2854b7ebd3d5f01cb1
- Realised P&L
- $-215.95
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $47.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US military draft authorized in 2026? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.035 | $29.56 | −$85.37 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.562 | 0.165 | $18.38 | −$44.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.09at 0.619US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$23.62at 0.590US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-5.00at 0.057Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$-14.16at 0.890US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$-17.12at 0.215US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-25 21:33 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 04-25 21:33 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.32 | $51.20 |
| 04-07 20:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5314507056 | $52.59 |
| 04-07 18:29 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999978 | $60.00 |
| 04-07 18:28 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | SELL | 0.79 | $111.84 |
| 04-06 17:33 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.8899999966 | $126.00 |
| 04-05 11:03 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5799999979 | $100.00 |
| 04-05 08:12 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $57.77 |
| 04-05 08:12 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $168.97 |
| 03-27 17:10 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $49.88 |
| 03-27 17:09 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $49.88 |
| 03-26 02:32 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5899999938 | $34.16 |
| 03-26 02:32 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1899999975 | $50.00 |
| 03-15 04:44 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999806 | $4.94 |
| 03-15 04:40 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0569999894 | $5.00 |