PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

penguinez

0xa86b0c67f0495e2d8b13e8c81e9134db9bcaa5ec

Realised P&L
$-239.67
Volume
$6.4k
Markets traded
30
Open portfolio
$227.29

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded30
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes0.2850.515$82.69+$36.95
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes0.0770.061$69.89$18.81
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.4600.512$55.71+$5.71
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No0.5400.475$19.00$2.60
Will Trump say "border" 5+ times during his Thursday press conference? · Yes0.0490.000$0.00$1.47
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00$5.00
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.1090.000$0.00$17.90
Will Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Government Efficiency" during his Thursday press conference? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00$0.11
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00$10.06
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? · No0.6140.000$0.00$11.08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No0.1400.000$0.00$10.00
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 70? · Yes0.3600.000$0.00$20.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No0.2720.000$0.00$20.00
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be greater than 80? · Yes0.1510.000$0.00$33.80
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires Bitcoin before July? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 12:02Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.54$21.60
09-04 12:31Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.28$108.27
08-26 21:20Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?SELL0.39$17.55
08-16 02:19Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?SELL0.43$19.35
08-13 14:58Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?BUY0.057$5.70
08-12 12:28Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.44$53.80
08-12 12:28Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.44$74.64
08-11 01:02Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?BUY0.063$6.30
08-08 03:29Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?SELL0.13$14.44
08-07 03:15Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?BUY0.067$6.42
08-06 15:05Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?BUY0.3539979993$10.62
08-06 12:00Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?BUY0.7920792079$100.00
08-06 09:07Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?BUY0.1799999928$20.00
08-06 09:07Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.4599999958$50.00
08-05 02:36Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?BUY0.095$4.75