lighttrader
0xa86142cb33e9bbea4dbf272abec120f474b820fe
- Realised P&L
- $-135.00
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $19.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.10at 0.280Nothing Ever Happens: February
- +$2.57at 0.280Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
- +$2.50at 0.120Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- +$2.14at 0.700Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
- +$1.22at 0.450Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 07:16 | Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $5.50 |
| 05-26 07:08 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF? | BUY | 0.0654501608 | $1.00 |
| 04-08 02:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.0599999923 | $7.00 |
| 04-08 02:08 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 02:07 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 02:07 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.1223414075 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 02:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.025 | $25.00 |
| 03-24 08:17 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999873 | $11.32 |
| 03-24 08:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.0052679743 | $5.00 |
| 02-20 04:26 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $18.83 |
| 02-19 23:40 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0108731996 | $5.00 |
| 02-19 23:40 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.015 | $5.00 |
| 02-19 23:38 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 02-19 23:38 | Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.9199998528 | $6.00 |
| 02-19 23:37 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |