PolyBot

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Traders

lighttrader

0xa86142cb33e9bbea4dbf272abec120f474b820fe

Realised P&L
$-135.00
Volume
$5.5k
Markets traded
39
Open portfolio
$19.02

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded39
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample18 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.9%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? · No0.9200.984$6.42+$0.42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.2000.041$3.86$14.97
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.2400.065$3.07$8.25
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? · Yes0.3100.095$1.53$3.47
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? · Yes0.1700.043$1.25$3.75
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0150.004$1.17$3.83
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF? · Yes0.0650.046$0.70$0.30
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0110.002$0.69$4.31
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.1100.019$0.17$0.83
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0160.002$0.09$0.91
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0220.002$0.07$0.93
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00$5.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$5.00
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? · Yes0.0350.000$0.00$1.00
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-04 07:16Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?SELL0.22$5.50
05-26 07:08Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF?BUY0.0654501608$1.00
04-08 02:09Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?BUY0.0599999923$7.00
04-08 02:08Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.0899999845$5.00
04-08 02:07Iran leadership change by May 31?BUY0.1899999726$5.00
04-08 02:07Iran leadership change by April 30?BUY0.1223414075$5.00
04-08 02:06Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY0.025$25.00
03-24 08:17Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?BUY0.2399999873$11.32
03-24 08:16Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?BUY0.0052679743$5.00
02-20 04:26Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.2$18.83
02-19 23:40Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.0108731996$5.00
02-19 23:40Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.015$5.00
02-19 23:38Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?BUY0.5599999776$5.00
02-19 23:38Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?BUY0.9199998528$6.00
02-19 23:37Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?BUY0.699999972$5.00