ballboy95
0xa849228d5664e59f2b397b68f0429ab10668c825
- Realised P&L
- $-142.5k
- Volume
- $3.84M
- Markets traded
- 1,138
- Open portfolio
- $7.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,138
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration46.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.899 | 0.723 | $6.1k | −$1.5k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.686 | 0.925 | $739.99 | +$191.00 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.500 | $434.78 | +$34.78 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.950 | 0.980 | $391.80 | +$11.80 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.041 | $17.88 | −$344.17 |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.144 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$231.85 |
| Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? · No | 0.719 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$718.04 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No | 0.756 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.6kat 0.921Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$10.4kat 0.200Nuggets vs. Thunder
- +$7.3kat 0.336Rockets vs. Warriors
- +$7.0kat 0.590Thunder vs. Timberwolves
- +$5.9kat 0.210Browns vs. Bengals
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-01 02:29 | Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.45 |
| 03-01 02:29 | Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.39 |
| 03-01 02:29 | Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $147.00 |
| 03-01 02:28 | Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.39 |
| 03-01 02:28 | Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $69.60 |
| 03-01 02:28 | Total Kills Over/Under 17.5 in Game 4? | BUY | 0.9895238095 | $10.39 |
| 02-04 05:09 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $278.74 |
| 02-04 05:08 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $129.24 |
| 02-04 05:08 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $18.54 |
| 02-04 05:08 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7687164819 | $172.01 |
| 02-03 17:45 | Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31? | BUY | 0.2584120089 | $95.24 |
| 02-03 09:29 | Jazz vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.61 | $3.0k |
| 02-02 23:18 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.1k |
| 02-02 22:26 | StarCraft II: ShoWTimE vs HeRoMaRinE - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.99 | $30.32 |
| 02-02 22:16 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.0k |