PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ballboy95

0xa849228d5664e59f2b397b68f0429ab10668c825

Realised P&L
$-142.5k
Volume
$3.84M
Markets traded
1,138
Open portfolio
$7.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,138
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration46.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration79.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.8990.723$6.1k$1.5k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.6860.925$739.99+$191.00
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? · Yes0.4600.500$434.78+$34.78
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.9500.980$391.80+$11.80
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · Yes0.8300.041$17.88$344.17
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1440.000$0.00$231.85
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? · No0.7190.000$0.00$1.6k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.1890.000$0.00$718.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No0.7560.000$0.00$6.5k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-01 02:29Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 4?BUY0.99$5.45
03-01 02:29Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 4?BUY0.99$10.39
03-01 02:29Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 4?BUY0.98$147.00
03-01 02:28Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 4?BUY0.99$10.39
03-01 02:28Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 4?BUY0.98$69.60
03-01 02:28Total Kills Over/Under 17.5 in Game 4?BUY0.9895238095$10.39
02-04 05:09Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?BUY0.98$278.74
02-04 05:08Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?BUY0.93$129.24
02-04 05:08Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?BUY0.32$18.54
02-04 05:08Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?BUY0.7687164819$172.01
02-03 17:45Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?BUY0.2584120089$95.24
02-03 09:29Jazz vs. PacersBUY0.61$3.0k
02-02 23:18Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?BUY0.98$2.1k
02-02 22:26StarCraft II: ShoWTimE vs HeRoMaRinE - Map 2 WinnerBUY0.99$30.32
02-02 22:16Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?BUY0.98$2.0k