0x0a6c5683c69f3b7608C40ee7fc9d2087a20378C7-1777624430450
0xa82edb4031fb8446e0b5d254e66326b465a3a2fe
- Realised P&L
- $-4.60
- Volume
- $399.53
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $30.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 5? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.775 | $6.05 | +$1.05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 5? · Yes | 0.898 | 0.959 | $5.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 6? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.950 | $5.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 4? · Yes | 0.947 | 0.918 | $4.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 7? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.940 | $4.73 | +$0.05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3? · Yes | 0.894 | 0.958 | $4.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.50at 0.314Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?
- +$0.83at 0.552Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
- +$0.65at 0.866Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 11?
- +$0.60at 0.772Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
- +$0.58at 0.972Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 7? | BUY | 0.929999998 | $4.68 |
| 10-31 02:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3? | BUY | 0.8939999861 | $4.00 |
| 10-30 16:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 5? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 16:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 6? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 02:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 5? | BUY | 0.8979999896 | $5.00 |
| 10-29 11:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 4? | BUY | 0.9469999981 | $5.00 |
| 10-26 05:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29? | BUY | 0.9329999903 | $5.00 |
| 10-26 05:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 10-24 16:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28? | BUY | 0.906 | $2.00 |
| 10-23 10:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 28? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 10-23 05:44 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.9829999994 | $10.00 |
| 10-22 20:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.00 |
| 10-22 16:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.00 |
| 10-22 15:38 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 10:02 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.04 |