0xa73dba3ad3b5724656338695ca6c71fc363657e4
0xa73dba3ad3b5724656338695ca6c71fc363657e4
- Realised P&L
- $-0.68
- Volume
- $17.91
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $49.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.774 | 0.745 | $10.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.805 | $9.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.705 | $4.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.585 | $4.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.715 | $4.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.635 | $4.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.715 | $4.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.635 | $3.69 | −$1.31 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.735 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.05at 0.784Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?
- +$0.37at 0.732Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?
- +$0.34at 0.724Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?
- +$0.11at 0.885Will Isabelle Blais win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?
- +$-0.09at 0.625Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:50 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999778 | $6.00 |
| 11-01 16:46 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more? | SELL | 0.952 | $6.10 |
| 11-01 09:25 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 09:25 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 09:24 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.659999963 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 09:23 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999625 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 08:59 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more? | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 08:58 | Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 08:55 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7299999007 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 08:54 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 08:53 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999517 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 08:53 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 14:24 | Will Messi get a guard of honour? | SELL | 0.72 | $0.80 |
| 10-06 14:24 | Will Ronaldo post about Messi by October 7? | SELL | 0.72 | $0.84 |
| 10-06 14:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $0.96 |