0xA72ccdd2dD20ca0ADcbA04B8E706977e790bF5A6-1767492438809
0xa72ccdd2dd20ca0adcba04b8e706977e790bf5a6
- Realised P&L
- $857.51
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $220.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.972 | $113.02 | +$13.02 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.964 | $107.11 | +$7.11 |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.011 | $0.85 | −$9.15 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$406.24at 0.709Grok 4.20 released by January 31?
- +$228.70at 0.697Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
- +$115.00at 0.080Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$90.92at 0.885Grok 4.20 released by January 15?
- +$22.06at 0.948Grok 4.20 released by January 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-26 18:21 | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9209999998 | $105.56 |
| 01-22 22:17 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.9199999841 | $20.82 |
| 01-22 06:19 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $110.75 |
| 01-22 06:18 | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8914817279 | $100.00 |
| 01-20 17:16 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999911 | $20.00 |
| 01-20 17:15 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $14.28 |
| 01-20 17:14 | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7741223436 | $100.00 |
| 01-20 14:26 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.7699999998 | $100.00 |
| 01-20 14:25 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.7636737252 | $100.00 |
| 01-20 14:25 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.7599999962 | $120.00 |
| 01-20 14:24 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.2941176471 | $20.00 |
| 01-20 13:15 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.7838856915 | $100.00 |
| 01-20 13:14 | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7629999959 | $20.00 |
| 01-18 14:14 | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $100.00 |
| 01-18 14:14 | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BUY | 0.6274509804 | $100.00 |