0xa70d7bc683e1bfd35b826a8694adc2b149110f06
0xa70d7bc683e1bfd35b826a8694adc2b149110f06
- Realised P&L
- $8.16
- Volume
- $490.76
- Markets traded
- 165
- Open portfolio
- $9.80
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded165
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.745 | $1.69 | +$0.69 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.465 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.685 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.315 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.395 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? · No | 0.460 | 0.395 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · No | 0.760 | 0.580 | $0.76 | −$0.24 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.490 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.570 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.135 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.155 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.50at 0.247Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $188 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$6.73at 0.268Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$4.85at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
- +$4.38at 0.359Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$4.10at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 22:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 14:23 | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:23 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:22 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:21 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:18 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 22:15 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:36 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:29 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:26 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:24 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:24 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:12 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |