Imbleciar
0xa6f8220dfac596335d6b6719f2a2c7b451cc316d
- Realised P&L
- $61.8k
- Volume
- $1.53M
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.310 | $2.5k | +$4.05 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.180 | 0.185 | $122.81 | +$3.32 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.211 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$608.56 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · No | 0.214 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.6k |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.0kat 0.040Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
- +$6.8kat 0.517Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$5.7kat 0.982Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$5.2kat 0.959Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
- +$4.9kat 0.590Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 20:46 | Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | BUY | 0.9710240094 | $6.5k |
| 04-30 20:35 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $75.8k |
| 03-22 20:29 | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones | SELL | 0.04 | $40.59 |
| 03-22 20:06 | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones | SELL | 0.77 | $888.03 |
| 03-22 20:04 | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones | SELL | 0.7525 | $2.3k |
| 03-22 20:04 | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones | SELL | 0.7 | $2.1k |
| 03-09 03:06 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | SELL | 0.1 | $781.97 |
| 02-28 19:06 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.38 | $2.2k |
| 02-28 10:11 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.5k |
| 02-28 06:48 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.1059410892 | $481.31 |
| 02-28 06:48 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | BUY | 0.161 | $372.35 |
| 02-28 06:47 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $380.26 |
| 02-28 06:45 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.21006 | $1.1k |
| 02-28 06:21 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.8k |
| 02-12 16:54 | Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.954 | $8.4k |