MAGURO
0xa6d7d478f43a6b60c091a483a430873b0b329db4
- Realised P&L
- $-6.6k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 143
- Open portfolio
- $6.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded143
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.972 | $4.9k | +$857.50 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No | 0.743 | 0.715 | $962.36 | −$37.63 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.906 | 0.855 | $943.47 | −$56.53 |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? · Yes | 0.888 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.8k |
| Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$230.94 |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.316 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? · Yes | 0.733 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.7kat 0.787Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
- +$5.4kat 0.234Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$5.0kat 0.280Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?
- +$2.9kat 0.420Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.842Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:21 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.91 | $5.0k |
| 09-13 21:19 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | SELL | 0.09 | $450.00 |
| 09-13 21:19 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | SELL | 0.1 | $500.00 |
| 09-13 21:10 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.28 | $1.1k |
| 09-13 21:08 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.28 | $1.7k |
| 09-13 20:12 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | BUY | 0.92 | $4.6k |
| 07-10 17:05 | Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.9929375085 | $10.0k |
| 04-22 02:29 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.1801140185 | $300.19 |
| 04-21 08:14 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999997 | $500.00 |
| 03-07 03:52 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.2161861348 | $1.7k |
| 02-19 12:16 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY | 0.7519508176 | $2.0k |
| 02-19 05:07 | Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | BUY | 0.7899626611 | $3.0k |
| 02-09 03:32 | Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.0k |
| 02-09 03:32 | Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.4k |
| 02-08 06:42 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.956 | $5.0k |