IserlohnC
0xa6d31711d19bb0ef37ff1cf637a2db2a69731dc9
- Realised P&L
- $-10.2k
- Volume
- $46.6k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-21.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$224.12at 0.617Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$190.48at 0.840Trump blowout victory?
- +$84.03at 0.163Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?
- +$83.81at 0.595US military action against Iran before July?
- +$73.85at 0.520Yoon arrested by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 15:55 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.8699999989 | $98.00 |
| 10-14 14:57 | Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 14:56 | Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 14:56 | Will Democrats win white women in the midterms? | BUY | 0.7699999992 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 14:42 | Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999972 | $120.00 |
| 10-14 14:40 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9639999985 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 14:32 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.64 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 14:32 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 14:31 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.3665805681 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 14:02 | Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? | BUY | 0.9691926494 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 14:00 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7979999997 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 13:59 | Will Chuck Schumer be the next US Senate Minority Leader? | BUY | 0.4195719577 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 13:59 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.7677979519 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 13:58 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6940656966 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 13:56 | Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.9791098998 | $110.00 |