0xA6964d1A5b5b6DC51e6444B6530Da91462991d24-1763678571510
0xa6964d1a5b5b6dc51e6444b6530da91462991d24
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $382.8k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.846 | 0.954 | $2.0k | +$225.15 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.915 | $673.44 | +$11.04 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.945 | $378.00 | +$6.00 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December? · No | 0.915 | 0.915 | $302.02 | −$0.20 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? · No | 0.728 | 0.765 | $285.46 | +$13.72 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.003 | $104.56 | −$343.05 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.080 | $101.46 | −$48.55 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December? · No | 0.910 | 0.964 | $46.40 | +$2.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$191.05at 0.912Up Only podcast released by December 31?
- +$154.76at 0.972Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$148.45at 0.681Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
- +$130.24at 0.683Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$113.20at 0.923Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 16:22 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $122.50 |
| 09-14 16:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $768.00 |
| 09-10 02:13 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $220.00 |
| 09-10 02:12 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.8056698572 | $164.14 |
| 08-14 04:44 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999998 | $400.00 |
| 08-14 04:43 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $30.50 |
| 08-04 17:57 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999993 | $260.00 |
| 08-04 17:56 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.7229999999 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 17:54 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $364.50 |
| 08-04 17:54 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $139.77 |
| 07-31 17:44 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $564.00 |
| 07-24 10:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | SELL | 0.3 | $76.78 |
| 07-24 08:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $536.57 |
| 07-19 13:16 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0779999992 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 13:16 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1175400775 | $300.00 |