0xA6964d1A5b5b6DC51e6444B6530Da91462991d24-1763678571510
0xa6964d1a5b5b6dc51e6444b6530da91462991d24
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $367.8k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.846 | 0.967 | $2.0k | +$252.47 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.960 | $706.19 | +$43.79 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.966 | $386.20 | +$14.20 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December? · No | 0.915 | 0.945 | $311.92 | +$9.71 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December? · No | 0.740 | 0.555 | $262.50 | −$87.50 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.002 | $62.73 | −$384.87 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December? · No | 0.649 | 0.420 | $57.64 | −$31.49 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December? · No | 0.910 | 0.983 | $47.32 | +$3.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$191.05at 0.912Up Only podcast released by December 31?
- +$154.76at 0.972Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$130.24at 0.683Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$113.20at 0.923Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?
- +$88.01at 0.877Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 15:42 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December? | BUY | 0.74 | $350.00 |
| 10-06 15:22 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December? | BUY | 0.6494957371 | $89.13 |
| 10-06 15:20 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? | SELL | 0.5933997201 | $148.38 |
| 10-06 04:07 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? | SELL | 0.6841083573 | $178.04 |
| 09-28 18:19 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? | BUY | 0.7 | $96.00 |
| 09-14 16:22 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $122.50 |
| 09-14 16:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $768.00 |
| 09-10 02:13 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $220.00 |
| 09-10 02:12 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.8056698572 | $164.14 |
| 08-14 04:44 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999998 | $400.00 |
| 08-14 04:43 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $30.50 |
| 08-04 17:57 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999993 | $260.00 |
| 08-04 17:56 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.7229999999 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 17:54 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $364.50 |
| 08-04 17:54 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $139.77 |