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Traders

df444

0xa68ddad5c3b3f7b0e403180a03c9d31e3785e03b

Realised P&L
$-67.19
Volume
$13.1k
Markets traded
339
Open portfolio
$182.80

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded339
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.6300.795$31.80+$6.60
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes0.7100.765$22.94+$1.65
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.6400.655$19.65+$0.45
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.8990.970$19.39+$1.41
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.8600.963$19.25+$2.05
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.4300.915$18.30+$9.70
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes0.2500.905$18.10+$13.10
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.3800.580$11.60+$4.00
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0410.574$5.74+$5.33
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.1500.165$3.30+$0.30
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.2600.155$3.10−$2.10
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.4700.110$2.20−$7.20
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.3400.105$2.10−$4.70
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.4200.071$1.42−$6.98
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.1200.065$1.30−$1.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-21 14:52Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.64$19.20
09-14 15:19Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.71$21.29
09-14 05:00Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.63$25.20
09-14 05:00Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?SELL0.58$5.80
09-14 04:59Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?SELL0.63$6.30
09-14 04:59Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?SELL0.7$7.00
09-06 13:24Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.42$8.40
09-06 13:23Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.47$9.40
09-06 13:22Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?BUY0.224$4.48
09-06 13:22Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?BUY0.25$5.00
09-06 13:22Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?BUY0.36$7.20
09-06 13:21Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.12$2.40
09-06 13:21Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.315$6.30
09-06 13:21Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.43$8.60
09-06 13:20Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.15$3.00
Trader df444 · PolyBot Pro