df444
0xa68ddad5c3b3f7b0e403180a03c9d31e3785e03b
- Realised P&L
- $-67.19
- Volume
- $13.1k
- Markets traded
- 339
- Open portfolio
- $182.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded339
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.40at 0.649LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner
- +$42.35at 0.153Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
- +$36.00at 0.100Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23?
- +$25.00at 0.875LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner
- +$24.00at 0.590Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 14:52 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.64 | $19.20 |
| 09-14 15:19 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.71 | $21.29 |
| 09-14 05:00 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $25.20 |
| 09-14 05:00 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.58 | $5.80 |
| 09-14 04:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 09-14 04:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 09-06 13:24 | Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 09-06 13:23 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $9.40 |
| 09-06 13:22 | Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.224 | $4.48 |
| 09-06 13:22 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 09-06 13:22 | Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 09-06 13:21 | Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 09-06 13:21 | Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.315 | $6.30 |
| 09-06 13:21 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $8.60 |
| 09-06 13:20 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |