magickD3MiAN
0xa66bc2b52667f2844e9f76100806028d30c60b8b
- Realised P&L
- $678.58
- Volume
- $495.0k
- Markets traded
- 300
- Open portfolio
- $76.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded300
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.125 | $63.22 | −$31.47 |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.415 | $8.30 | −$0.70 |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.002 | $3.50 | −$12.81 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.635 | $1.56 | +$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.073Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
- +$380.88at 0.031Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
- +$224.12at 0.110Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
- +$222.42at 0.615Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$187.25at 0.030Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 06:25 | Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 10-02 11:13 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $0.84 |
| 09-22 15:57 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.72 |
| 09-22 15:19 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $27.27 |
| 09-22 14:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $43.21 |
| 09-19 12:45 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 09-16 04:47 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $2.45 |
| 09-14 12:58 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.58 |
| 09-14 00:35 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.86 |
| 09-10 16:05 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 06:52 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $2.90 |
| 09-07 17:11 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $8.49 |
| 09-07 14:19 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $17.24 |
| 09-06 11:56 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $11.32 |
| 09-06 11:53 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $22.96 |