PolyBot

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Traders

Needtoneet

0xa6085aa9075fdbf3ec9ea8e9c09e6d6c4fd107b3

Realised P&L
$355.41
Volume
$20.7k
Markets traded
40
Open portfolio
$863.31

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded40
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample20 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)65.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4060.502$401.78+$76.78
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.3600.475$263.89+$63.89
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.5000.993$89.33+$44.33
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes0.5300.510$48.11$1.89
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · Yes0.3600.195$27.08$22.92
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1300.065$25.00$25.00
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1670.024$7.19$42.81
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0130.001$0.93$24.07
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? · No0.6650.000$0.00$100.00
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? · No0.6200.000$0.00$10.03
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? · Yes0.1670.000$0.00$50.00
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00$10.00
Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes0.4200.000$0.00$100.00
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$1.03
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$1.82

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 22:27Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?SELL0.3774249758$42.89
07-19 22:03Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY0.4399999975$50.00
07-16 21:55Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.3599999992$200.00
07-15 08:04Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?BUY0.1152306052$50.00
07-14 17:47Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1299999979$50.00
07-13 09:52Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?SELL0.15$0.04
07-13 09:52Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?SELL0.15$77.25
07-12 21:06Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?BUY0.3994754887$100.00
07-12 20:35Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?BUY0.6653426016$100.00
07-12 20:30Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?SELL0.2857705879$145.78
07-12 18:15Will France win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.4199999977$100.00
07-12 18:01Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.0970401251$50.00
07-11 20:10Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?BUY0.3599999977$50.00
07-11 20:07Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1669999976$50.00
07-10 20:12Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.1674999976$50.00