50ShadesofGrey
0xa4fcd42731853ed3711aac964a14f442b1f6977d
- Realised P&L
- $4.2k
- Volume
- $1.68M
- Markets traded
- 322
- Open portfolio
- $1.06M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded322
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.790 | $474.3k | +$174.3k |
| Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) · France | 0.995 | 1.000 | $191.6k | +$954.94 |
| Spread: Romania (-2.5) · Sweden | 0.992 | 1.000 | $135.0k | +$945.93 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.209 | $125.7k | −$174.3k |
| Spread: Italy (-3.5) · Belgium | 0.979 | 1.000 | $82.4k | +$1.7k |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-09-25? · Yes | 0.997 | 1.000 | $17.3k | +$50.61 |
| Will Sweden vs. Romania end in a draw? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $16.3k | +$10.21 |
| Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? · No | 0.989 | 1.000 | $6.8k | +$75.09 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $4.0k | +$2.11 |
| Will France win on 2026-09-25? · Yes | 0.990 | 1.000 | $3.4k | +$31.90 |
| Spread: France (-4.5) · Türkiye | 0.934 | 1.000 | $3.0k | +$197.59 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 25? · Up | 0.999 | 1.000 | $437.69 | +$0.22 |
| Will Romania win on 2026-09-25? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $309.65 | +$0.16 |
| Will Türkiye vs. France end in a draw? · No | 0.990 | 1.000 | $209.98 | +$2.00 |
| Spread: Italy (-1.5) · Belgium | 0.999 | 1.000 | $131.40 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$191.1kat 0.486Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$26.8kat 0.062Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$556.16at 0.567Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes
- +$36.75at 0.996Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5
- +$11.97at 0.970Knicks vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 20:45 | Will Türkiye vs. France end in a draw? | BUY | 0.99 | $32.32 |
| 09-25 20:44 | Will Türkiye vs. France end in a draw? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 09-25 20:44 | Will France win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.6k |
| 09-25 20:39 | Will Sweden vs. Romania end in a draw? | BUY | 0.99 | $175.11 |
| 09-25 20:38 | Will Romania win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.999 | $203.78 |
| 09-25 20:36 | Will Italy vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.29 |
| 09-25 20:35 | Will Belgium win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.9989831686 | $15.1k |
| 09-25 20:34 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.9989025302 | $1.2k |
| 09-25 20:29 | Will Belgium win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.1k |
| 09-25 20:16 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.988 | $3.8k |
| 09-25 20:16 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.987 | $43.70 |
| 09-25 20:16 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.989591032 | $2.3k |
| 09-25 20:15 | Spread: Italy (-1.5) | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 20:14 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.98 | $36.58 |
| 09-25 19:49 | NYA (NYA) Up or Down on September 25? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |