tfyj
0xa4c707c5f977a40f2d4b7b4a1fcb37e564dd3218
- Realised P&L
- $-8.72
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $5.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.29at 0.140Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
- +$2.99at 0.640Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
- +$1.61at 0.550Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?
- +$0.75at 0.950Ethereum above $3,800 on July 28?
- +$0.35at 0.740Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 10:36 | Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 13:58 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 08:10 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 05-10 09:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 04-25 11:41 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 03-04 11:08 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 03-04 11:08 | Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $4.28 |
| 03-03 15:21 | Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 11:33 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 02-26 15:29 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $3.61 |
| 02-26 15:02 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 02-09 03:55 | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739993766 | $1.50 |
| 02-04 00:19 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $8.57 |
| 02-02 14:30 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.59 |
| 01-19 06:02 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.965999995 | $5.40 |