felbax
0xa4bdb35fe4888823f01b5833585238250b1c9bdb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $39.0k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $7.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.455 | $2.0k | +$1.0k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.875 | $1.8k | +$822.92 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.390 | $847.47 | −$152.53 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.369 | 0.245 | $663.12 | −$336.88 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.237 | 0.145 | $611.82 | −$388.18 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.185 | $457.80 | −$542.20 |
| Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.422 | 0.145 | $343.57 | −$656.43 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? · Yes | 0.395 | 0.065 | $164.71 | −$835.28 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · Yes | 0.615 | 0.090 | $146.43 | −$853.57 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.349 | 0.029 | $84.43 | −$915.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$666.67at 0.600US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$526.96at 0.655Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$393.44at 0.610US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-262.90at 0.398Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 06:21 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3694662688 | $1000.00 |
| 04-29 10:52 | Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | BUY | 0.6146324831 | $1000.00 |
| 04-29 10:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4041069884 | $1000.00 |
| 04-15 06:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999998 | $1000.00 |
| 04-15 06:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2931217192 | $737.10 |
| 04-03 17:19 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.4k |
| 04-02 17:54 | Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4220450327 | $1000.00 |
| 04-02 17:53 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | BUY | 0.3946229799 | $1000.00 |
| 04-02 17:39 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3493823065 | $1000.00 |
| 04-02 17:38 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $1000.00 |
| 04-02 17:38 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6099999999 | $1000.00 |
| 04-02 17:35 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2714627495 | $500.00 |
| 04-02 17:35 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1946997216 | $500.00 |
| 04-02 17:34 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2369996355 | $1000.00 |
| 04-02 17:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3976707099 | $1000.00 |