DonkDaWarrior
0xa4928dafb87cec08fe7f63f4eae83b3b7c28d2fd
- Realised P&L
- $-6.6k
- Volume
- $409.0k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $5.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.4kat 0.266Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$5.5kat 0.487Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$2.5kat 0.745Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.7kat 0.554Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?
- +$1.3kat 0.1602024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 00:33 | Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | BUY | 0.299 | $239.20 |
| 10-14 00:22 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $986.00 |
| 10-14 00:14 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $504.00 |
| 10-14 00:13 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? | BUY | 0.23 | $318.55 |
| 10-14 00:08 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.0k |
| 10-11 18:08 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.1k |
| 10-10 23:37 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $423.42 |
| 10-10 23:28 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.0k |
| 08-09 13:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.1k |
| 08-04 22:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $4.0k |
| 08-01 18:06 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $310.80 |
| 08-01 17:51 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $436.80 |
| 07-27 22:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.735 | $1.5k |
| 07-27 22:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.735 | $2.2k |
| 07-27 22:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.735 | $3.5k |