0xa41372797cebfac0055776ead81db0370d63af03
0xa41372797cebfac0055776ead81db0370d63af03
- Realised P&L
- $2.93
- Volume
- $136.87
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $6.74
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.945 | $2.20 | +$0.71 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.875 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.770 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.795 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.525 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · No | 0.220 | 0.125 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.94at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$3.43at 0.308Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.370US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$2.29at 0.400Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of September 21 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:07 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:33 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:34 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:27 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:25 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:51 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 23:29 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 15:20 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 05:57 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 21:56 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 13:54 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in September? | BUY | 0.3235340269 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 05:07 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:06 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:21 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |