PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ellebel

0xa408ecf7297bb8277f4ad1de57e2d67a86ee3dc1

Realised P&L
$-384.72
Volume
$26.5k
Markets traded
141
Open portfolio
$478.37

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded141
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8900.870$58.66$1.35
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.6000.635$52.92+$2.92
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.7400.745$50.34+$0.34
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.8400.835$49.70$0.30
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes0.9750.956$49.03$0.97
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0260.042$47.88+$17.89
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.7300.565$30.95$9.05
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.5230.265$25.32$24.68
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · Yes0.1990.145$21.91$8.09
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0140.004$18.59$54.78
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2770.247$13.40$1.60
Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? · Yes0.0640.036$11.43$8.57
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.0900.028$9.17$20.83
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.2500.075$9.00$21.00
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5200.460$8.84$1.16

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 12:21Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.8399999879$50.00
07-14 13:49Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?BUY0.0638686102$20.00
07-14 13:45Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?SELL0.9712323441$42.22
07-13 13:32Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.8899999996$60.00
07-11 13:40Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.0259999992$30.00
07-11 13:38Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.7399999985$50.00
07-11 13:36Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.8014600672$54.89
07-06 07:58Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?BUY0.1985702939$30.00
07-06 07:55Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?BUY0.92$40.00
07-06 07:50Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.23$31.72
07-05 15:51Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.7299999974$40.00
07-05 08:39Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?SELL0.972$52.26
06-24 12:00Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?BUY0.9298341168$50.00
06-24 11:55Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?BUY0.9749999854$50.00
06-20 07:38Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.24$52.17