PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ellebel

0xa408ecf7297bb8277f4ad1de57e2d67a86ee3dc1

Realised P&L
$-455.16
Volume
$26.4k
Markets traded
141
Open portfolio
$379.74

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded141
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration9.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.6000.765$63.75+$13.75
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8900.875$59.00$1.01
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.7400.755$51.01+$1.01
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes0.9750.973$49.87$0.13
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.8400.495$29.47$20.54
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0260.022$25.96$4.04
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.5230.265$25.32$24.68
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · Yes0.1990.105$15.86$14.14
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.2500.085$10.20$19.80
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5200.512$9.86$0.14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.7300.175$9.59$30.41
Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? · Yes0.0640.028$8.61$11.39
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.5300.145$5.47$14.53
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.9100.915$5.03+$0.03
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.0900.011$3.50$26.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-12 13:22Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.499$27.02
08-02 12:21Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.8399999879$50.00
07-14 13:49Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?BUY0.0638686102$20.00
07-14 13:45Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?SELL0.9712323441$42.22
07-13 13:32Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.8899999996$60.00
07-11 13:40Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.0259999992$30.00
07-11 13:38Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.7399999985$50.00
07-11 13:36Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.8014600672$54.89
07-06 07:58Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?BUY0.1985702939$30.00
07-06 07:55Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?BUY0.92$40.00
07-06 07:50Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.23$31.72
07-05 15:51Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.7299999974$40.00
07-05 08:39Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?SELL0.972$52.26
06-24 12:00Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?BUY0.9298341168$50.00
06-24 11:55Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?BUY0.9749999854$50.00