ellebel
0xa408ecf7297bb8277f4ad1de57e2d67a86ee3dc1
- Realised P&L
- $-384.72
- Volume
- $26.5k
- Markets traded
- 141
- Open portfolio
- $478.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded141
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.35at 0.070Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
- +$52.72at 0.363French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?
- +$25.35at 0.081Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$22.31at 0.631Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
- +$20.40at 0.495Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 12:21 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8399999879 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 13:49 | Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.0638686102 | $20.00 |
| 07-14 13:45 | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | SELL | 0.9712323441 | $42.22 |
| 07-13 13:32 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $60.00 |
| 07-11 13:40 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0259999992 | $30.00 |
| 07-11 13:38 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7399999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-11 13:36 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.8014600672 | $54.89 |
| 07-06 07:58 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | BUY | 0.1985702939 | $30.00 |
| 07-06 07:55 | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | BUY | 0.92 | $40.00 |
| 07-06 07:50 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.23 | $31.72 |
| 07-05 15:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.7299999974 | $40.00 |
| 07-05 08:39 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.972 | $52.26 |
| 06-24 12:00 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9298341168 | $50.00 |
| 06-24 11:55 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.9749999854 | $50.00 |
| 06-20 07:38 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.24 | $52.17 |