maybeNextMonth
0xa3ae7824bf29c3a72c2f37ac242586788ecb479e
- Realised P&L
- $-161.02
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $370.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.977 | $97.70 | +$11.70 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.667 | 0.175 | $78.75 | −$221.25 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.255 | $51.00 | +$17.00 |
| Human moon landing in 2026? · No | 0.937 | 0.986 | $49.27 | +$2.42 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.115 | $43.24 | −$28.36 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.962 | $19.23 | +$1.03 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.115 | $17.25 | −$15.25 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.916 | 0.958 | $9.57 | +$0.41 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.277 | 0.040 | $1.76 | −$10.54 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.045 | $1.36 | −$2.08 |
| Trump on $250 bill this year? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.025 | $1.27 | −$3.23 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$245.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.795 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$110.00at 0.450Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$73.50at 0.616US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$38.40at 0.470Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
- +$33.00at 0.670Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$28.80at 0.280Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 00:02 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $45.00 |
| 07-27 22:37 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $110.00 |
| 07-25 03:13 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-20 22:47 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 07-20 22:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $110.00 |
| 07-18 01:47 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.784 | $78.40 |
| 06-25 10:03 | Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $5.46 |
| 06-24 23:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 06-14 22:59 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.31 | $40.49 |
| 06-08 23:15 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.00 |
| 06-08 23:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $150.00 |
| 05-31 23:06 | Trump on $250 bill this year? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 05-28 23:07 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 05-28 22:46 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.32 |
| 05-23 00:17 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.295 | $5.90 |