txmm1
0xa39f9210eb2a4deb9d5e13c5440f5fcd6b6d01c8
- Realised P&L
- $105.11
- Volume
- $98.9k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.512 | $1.2k | +$221.68 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.162 | $387.60 | −$260.17 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.925 | $92.50 | +$3.50 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.137 | $54.60 | −$241.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$57.11at 0.890Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?
- +$51.40at 0.743Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$32.77at 0.121Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$31.27at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$30.00at 0.887Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 14:52 | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 08-30 12:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $60.78 |
| 07-29 22:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.958727957 | $89.16 |
| 07-29 22:55 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $119.70 |
| 07-23 20:39 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.28 | $112.00 |
| 07-23 20:38 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.43 | $172.00 |
| 07-23 20:34 | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $178.00 |
| 07-23 20:33 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $118.37 |
| 07-23 20:32 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.28 | $280.00 |
| 07-23 20:32 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.43 | $430.00 |
| 07-23 20:29 | Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.942 | $753.60 |
| 07-23 20:28 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.966 | $579.60 |
| 07-08 20:59 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.406 | $40.60 |
| 07-08 20:59 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.256 | $25.60 |
| 07-08 20:58 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.406 | $162.40 |