happy1e
0xa37090bae88057f58af339da4d37b40bb570e43c
- Realised P&L
- $-48.46
- Volume
- $115.5k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $141.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.720 | $72.00 | −$1.00 |
| Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.555 | $53.42 | +$14.92 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.165 | $16.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.49at 0.855Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.963Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$5.71at 0.930Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
- +$2.88at 0.910Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?
- +$2.71at 0.590Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:21 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 09-17 08:20 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 08-12 02:34 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 08-12 02:33 | Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4 | $38.50 |
| 08-12 02:32 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.71 |
| 05-29 10:28 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.98 |
| 05-29 10:27 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | SELL | 0.964 | $28.92 |
| 04-18 09:18 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $158.10 |
| 04-18 09:17 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.009 | $79.20 |
| 02-28 09:59 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $81.33 |
| 02-28 09:58 | Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.003 | $22.65 |
| 01-31 10:31 | Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $22.65 |
| 01-31 10:30 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? | BUY | 0.995 | $59.70 |
| 01-31 10:30 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? | BUY | 0.983 | $73.20 |
| 01-31 10:29 | Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.20 |