0xa34e290fe82c8078470156490d3217e94bee4296
0xa34e290fe82c8078470156490d3217e94bee4296
- Realised P&L
- $23.48
- Volume
- $563.05
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $66.77
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.145 | $27.31 | −$2.64 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.518 | 0.597 | $17.55 | +$2.31 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.385 | $13.52 | −$11.07 |
| Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.044 | $3.54 | +$0.88 |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.340 | $2.96 | −$2.17 |
| Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.270 | $1.89 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.16at 0.604Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
- +$4.21at 0.322Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?
- +$1.00at 0.864Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
- +$0.95at 0.854Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 01:08 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.159 | $29.94 |
| 10-18 19:20 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.518 | $15.24 |
| 10-16 22:51 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.13 |
| 10-13 22:58 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.9045120291 | $19.93 |
| 10-13 22:47 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.933283323 | $15.05 |
| 10-13 22:45 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.96 | $0.18 |
| 10-11 16:07 | Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.033 | $2.65 |
| 10-03 13:21 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $18.60 |
| 09-11 21:18 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $49.16 |