PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

illyasviel

0xa2d0db20adb0cc9d0b74dd833582d9d874440823

Realised P&L
$-1.78
Volume
$13.8k
Markets traded
11
Open portfolio
$2.10

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded11
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration80.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0050.003$1.69$1.31
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? · Yes0.1000.042$0.41$0.58
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$24.98
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs · JD Gaming0.4600.000$0.00$5.00
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0450.000$0.00$5.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$1.00
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? · Yes0.2370.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-19 09:14LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals PlayoffsBUY0.4599999669$5.00
07-29 14:47Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.002$20.00
07-19 11:20Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentSELL0.696$5.03
07-19 03:10Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentSELL0.697$13.94
07-18 15:06Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentBUY0.348999888$2.00
07-18 14:37Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentBUY0.25$1.00
07-18 14:36Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentBUY0.2$1.00
07-18 11:02Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentBUY0.08$1.00
07-18 10:30Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentSELL0.06489$6.49
07-17 13:40Will T1 win the EWC League of Legends TournamentSELL0.32$14.54
07-17 11:09Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends TournamentBUY0.01$1.00
07-17 11:06Will T1 win the EWC League of Legends TournamentBUY0.1099999815$5.00
07-12 15:00Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?BUY0.0053369053$3.00
07-12 14:49Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.002$1.00
07-12 14:49Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?BUY0.0448225309$5.00