illyasviel
0xa2d0db20adb0cc9d0b74dd833582d9d874440823
- Realised P&L
- $-1.78
- Volume
- $13.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $2.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.003 | $1.69 | −$1.31 |
| Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.042 | $0.41 | −$0.58 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.98 |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs · JD Gaming | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? · Yes | 0.237 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.40at 0.609Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?
- +$18.63at 0.191Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament
- +$8.83at 0.115Will T1 win the EWC League of Legends Tournament
- +$-13.98at 0.030Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 09:14 | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs | BUY | 0.4599999669 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 14:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |
| 07-19 11:20 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | SELL | 0.696 | $5.03 |
| 07-19 03:10 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | SELL | 0.697 | $13.94 |
| 07-18 15:06 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | BUY | 0.348999888 | $2.00 |
| 07-18 14:37 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 14:36 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 11:02 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 10:30 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | SELL | 0.06489 | $6.49 |
| 07-17 13:40 | Will T1 win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | SELL | 0.32 | $14.54 |
| 07-17 11:09 | Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 11:06 | Will T1 win the EWC League of Legends Tournament | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 15:00 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0053369053 | $3.00 |
| 07-12 14:49 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 14:49 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0448225309 | $5.00 |