0xa2C64E2204E76C6077D0BB9c442736C79c91757b-1776097218535
0xa2c64e2204e76c6077d0bb9c442736c79c91757b
- Realised P&L
- $-6.3k
- Volume
- $82.9k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.348 | 0.085 | $2.1k | −$6.6k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.474 | 0.225 | $283.52 | −$314.48 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.115 | $81.73 | −$117.27 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.105Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.270Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$-466.66at 0.120Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 21:23 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0629719606 | $299.00 |
| 07-13 05:26 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 21:29 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1252570414 | $2.9k |
| 07-08 15:37 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1269515761 | $1.2k |
| 07-07 08:37 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999848 | $6.00 |
| 06-16 16:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3660463062 | $4.2k |
| 06-12 11:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999993 | $234.00 |
| 06-12 11:09 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $233.33 |
| 06-12 11:00 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.2799999788 | $9.00 |
| 06-12 07:14 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.2799999992 | $190.00 |
| 06-12 07:13 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3243349733 | $2.3k |
| 06-09 19:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999996 | $499.00 |
| 06-09 19:21 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999998 | $298.00 |
| 06-09 19:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999515 | $3.00 |
| 05-17 07:23 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999926 | $30.00 |