3rdmeta
0xa281fb403ce9f39fc0afdd24c599ab31257b571e
- Realised P&L
- $-300.22
- Volume
- $56.2k
- Markets traded
- 1,727
- Open portfolio
- $55.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,727
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.46at 0.130Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
- +$30.19at 0.092Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
- +$18.75at 0.296Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?
- +$18.04at 0.310Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?
- +$14.61at 0.451Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 03:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $3.17 |
| 08-03 03:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | SELL | 0.36 | $1.57 |
| 08-03 03:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 03:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | SELL | 0.6 | $2.22 |
| 08-03 03:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | SELL | 0.91 | $2.46 |
| 08-03 02:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | SELL | 0.56 | $2.33 |
| 08-03 02:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:50 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.727 | $6.03 |
| 08-03 01:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET | SELL | 0.95 | $2.28 |
| 08-03 01:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8299999792 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 01:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $2.00 |