0x6565219e0bb323e56a7e668fd1e629498c9d9aae
0xa235ed8f6e3d4f667ecf93a6c9a012d762ea1b86
- Realised P&L
- $-394.66
- Volume
- $15.9k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $134.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.272 | 0.185 | $102.62 | −$48.51 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.160 | $31.90 | −$38.10 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$112.00 |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) · KT Rolster | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.80 |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Bucks vs. Magic · Magic | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.67at 0.713Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$36.00at 0.640Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$27.77at 0.610Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- +$21.00at 0.860Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$20.52at 0.789Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 14:08 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.1885114745 | $104.57 |
| 09-12 14:08 | Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8114645936 | $229.64 |
| 06-28 04:08 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $11.90 |
| 06-07 11:57 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 06-07 11:56 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 05-29 14:58 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $28.86 |
| 04-30 03:58 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.3794089912 | $34.60 |
| 04-30 03:52 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $129.87 |
| 04-10 11:07 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | BUY | 0.976 | $126.88 |
| 03-29 00:59 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | SELL | 0.9891003571 | $138.47 |
| 03-17 14:40 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | SELL | 0.992 | $10.03 |
| 03-07 13:47 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $270.72 |
| 03-07 13:46 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $282.00 |
| 03-07 12:43 | Will Solana reach $150 in March? | SELL | 0.994 | $566.58 |
| 03-05 12:16 | Will Solana reach $150 in March? | BUY | 0.98 | $558.60 |