0xA226570d47E6b7a4F4ed5CEe070C1952f18692e9-1768725692056
0xa226570d47e6b7a4f4ed5cee070c1952f18692e9
- Realised P&L
- $-53.95
- Volume
- $13.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $36.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? · No | 0.704 | 0.315 | $31.34 | −$38.66 |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.032 | $5.51 | −$15.49 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump and Robert Fico handshake last 2–6 seconds? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 324? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET · Up | 0.462 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.01 |
| Will Trump and Robert Fico handshake last 6–10 seconds? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.78at 0.740US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$16.50at 0.736Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 11:21 | Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.7035391902 | $70.00 |
| 08-13 11:20 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision? | BUY | 0.0962167571 | $5.00 |
| 05-26 07:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999919 | $62.00 |
| 04-21 07:37 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7357509388 | $45.94 |
| 02-11 09:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.379241485 | $4.86 |
| 01-21 06:30 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $21.00 |
| 01-19 19:15 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 01-19 09:22 | Will Trump attend UFC 324? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 01-19 07:26 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0349999967 | $10.00 |
| 01-18 09:09 | Will Trump and Robert Fico handshake last 6–10 seconds? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 01-18 09:08 | Will Trump and Robert Fico handshake last 2–6 seconds? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |