0xa1fcab499a9c42935b015385ca329794f79345c8
- Realised P&L
- $-361.00
- Volume
- $105.3k
- Markets traded
- 138
- Open portfolio
- $532.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded138
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · No | 0.967 | 0.974 | $200.93 | +$1.26 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.540 | $123.65 | −$73.27 |
| Tread FDV above $5M one day after launch · Yes | 0.844 | 0.980 | $56.81 | +$7.84 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.799 | 0.776 | $47.47 | −$1.35 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.368 | 0.125 | $42.50 | −$82.48 |
| Counter-Strike: Color vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Group B · Color | 0.719 | 0.500 | $33.97 | −$14.85 |
| Iasi Open: Jaqueline Cristian vs Leolia Jeanjean · Jaqueline Cristian | 0.505 | 0.500 | $9.56 | −$0.10 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.706 | 0.570 | $7.90 | −$1.88 |
| Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.868 | 0.257 | $5.80 | −$13.82 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.525 | 0.051 | $4.12 | −$37.92 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$433.71at 0.628Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
- +$331.23at 0.721Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
- +$290.43at 0.748Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22?
- +$245.32at 0.102Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$111.22at 0.469US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 20:54 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.8759999998 | $197.05 |
| 09-14 10:46 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999983 | $49.50 |
| 09-13 13:33 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999901 | $9.64 |
| 09-13 09:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999969 | $9.52 |
| 09-11 12:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $9.53 |
| 09-11 12:20 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4199999984 | $48.12 |
| 09-01 10:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4199999913 | $9.62 |
| 08-31 14:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.439999996 | $48.19 |
| 08-31 13:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.55 | $106.27 |
| 08-29 10:26 | Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) | BUY | 0.479999991 | $19.30 |
| 08-29 08:47 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7986466423 | $48.82 |
| 08-28 15:19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $96.61 |
| 08-27 18:14 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999995 | $196.92 |
| 08-21 12:28 | Tread FDV above $5M one day after launch | BUY | 0.8443093113 | $48.97 |
| 08-19 13:48 | LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season | BUY | 0.7199999976 | $48.82 |