d-oneguy
0xa1e57a345040c16a2532772ea51604c19c0079da
- Realised P&L
- $-25.43
- Volume
- $611.37
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $1.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.365 | $1.39 | +$0.25 |
| NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins · Bruins | 0.209 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning · Lightning | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens · Suzan Lamens | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.78at 0.526Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?
- +$0.61at 0.620Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?
- +$0.39at 0.387Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2
- +$0.14at 0.145US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
- +$0.05at 0.430Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 02:45 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $2.28 |
| 09-08 11:29 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $2.10 |
| 09-05 04:26 | US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 01:01 | New pandemic before 2028? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.85 |
| 09-04 20:20 | US recession by end of 2027? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.80 |
| 09-04 16:25 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 09-04 15:26 | US recession by end of 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 15:25 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 15:25 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 15:25 | New pandemic before 2028? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 15:25 | US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.89 |
| 07-05 15:27 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | SELL | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 07-05 15:27 | Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 | SELL | 0.47 | $2.41 |
| 06-30 07:39 | US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.00 |
| 06-30 07:34 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.00 |